Anticipating the Oscars (or the unexpected virtue of predictability)

As the awards season comes to a close with the Academy Awards on February 22^nd, the following are probably less predictions than near certainties. The Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild Awards (among others) are always good indicators of who will take home the prestigious Oscar statuette – but this year more than any. So without further ado, here are my personal predictions and opinions about this year’s excellent crop of movies.

Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette / Boyhood

The four acting awards seem to be just about locked up this year – and with good reason. Arquette’s honest, raw portrayal of a mother struggling to raise her kids in Texas is well deserving of the award – which has recently been taken by Lupita Nyong’o, Octavia Spencer and Melissa Leo, to name a few.

Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons / Whiplash

Simmons’ role as an abusive big band director at a New York conservatory is all too familiar for those of us who have been in cut-throat ensembles. His energy on-screen is unparalleled, but still keep an eye out for dark horse Edward Norton. The entire cast of Birdman was spectacular, but Norton stands out the most for his quirky, vain performance.

Best Actress: Julianne Moore / Still Alice

I have to confess that Still Alice is one of the few movies I haven’t seen this year, but from everything I’ve heard, Moore was incredible. Alzheimer’s (and aging in general) is an emotional subject for many, but one popular in the awards circuit (think back to Amour in 2012). My personal favorite, having not seen the film, would still have to be Reese Witherspoon in Wild.

Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne / The Theory of Everything

Stephen Hawking is perhaps one of the most difficult roles an actor could have, but Redmayne did a graceful and honest job. While Redmayne is undoubtedly going to take home the Oscar on the 22^nd, let us not forget the remarkable work done by his fellow nominees this year – notably Michael Keaton in Birdman.

Best Director: Richard Linklater / Boyhood

             

How could he not win ? Boyhood was a spectacular film for a number of reasons, but Linklater’s expert direction (not to mention the time and dedication he put into the film) should and will not go unrecognized. That said, were Boyhood not in the picture, Alejandro G. Iñárritu’s work on Birdman is some of the best filmmaking I’ve seen in years.

Best Picture: Boyhood

Boyhood is going to win, and I’m almost convinced that it deserves to. However, I have to say that Whiplash and Birdman are two of the best movies I’ve seen in years. Had these movies been released any other year, they would have swept the Oscars – but I guess that just proves that it was a great year for movies. In the end, Linklater's 12-year epic still deserves the Oscar.

Let’s not forget the biggest snubs of the year (Jennifer Aniston, The Lego Movie, Inherent Vice), and remember that the Oscars do not define great acting and filmmaking, but rather that art is subjective and we all have different taste. With that said, here’s a brief list of other, less certain predictions (I’ve left out categories in which I haven’t seen enough of the films to properly assess them, namely the shorts).

Best Original Screenplay: Birdman

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game

Best Original Song: ‘Glory’ / Selma

Best Original Score: Jóhann Jóhannsson / The Theory of Everything

Best Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Makeup & Hair Design: Guardians of the Galaxy

Best Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Sound Mixing: Whiplash         

Best Sound Editing: American Sniper

Best Editing: Whiplash

Best Visual Effects: Interstellar

Best Cinematography: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Animated Film: How to Train Your Dragon 2

Best Foreign Language Film: Ida

Happy Oscars,

henry xo

photos courtesy of la times, hollywood reporter, + último segundo